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The real world is calling. We have been busy answering its call.

We will hopefully be back soon.

 

Seven reasons I’m going to beat you

This isn’t directed at any one person.

This is directed at, well, a composite of the managers in one of the leagues I play in. This composite might be a composite of people in H2H leagues you play in as well, but maybe not. There exists a chance that your tendencies might be those that contribute to my composite. If they are, don’t be offended.

1. You’re years behind the times: You draft Ken Griffey Jr. and stick him out there like it’s 1997 and he’s going to mash 50 HR and compete for the MVP. Or as if he’s got a shot at having a 90/35/90 season or something like that. Same deal goes for guys like Jason Varitek and Jorge Posada. Repeat after me: It’s 2009.

(Also, Jason Varitek has always sucked.)

2. You’re one year behind the times: Sometimes last season is a good reference point for this season. But you, you seem to think that every guy in the majors is going to repeat his 2008 season, and you draft and/or pick up accordingly. Let’s say it again: It’s 2009.

Cliff Lee is not going to go 22-3.

(That said, Mark Reynolds might eclipse 200 whiffs again.)

3. Your roster is all heavy bats: Standard 5×5 hitting categories are R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG. So you, you go and draft mashers, thinking that you’ll compete in HR and RBI every week. And you will. But R and SB are the categories you should want to win week in week out, because they’re the ones that win series and leagues.

Play smaller ball.

(Of course, this comes from a guy who’s starting Carlos Quentin, Carlos Lee, Ryan Braun, and Josh Hamilton in my three OF and one UTIL spot, but I get support from elsewhere, and my H2H isn’t a 5×5.)

4. You over-prioritize saves, under-prioritize holds: If your league counts both SV and HLD, remember, while SV is definitely the sexier stat (that’s why closers earn the big bucks)  setup men are just as valuable because of their usually sparkling peripherals and, well, duh, a save is as good as hold if it’s a stat category. Also, there can only be one save per game but there can be more than one hold. This seems like it’s an obvious thing, but to some it’s not.

5. You stream too much, or too little: What’s that old adage? Offense wins games, defense wins championships? Well in real baseball and fantasy baseball, pitching wins championships. You need to exploit good matchups, and keep your guys away from bad ones. You need to find pitchers that fit your strategy (what, you don’t have one?) and your needs.

In much the same way that certain people opt for the sexy closer over the unheralded setup guy, some people start pitchers  because they’re there and they’re starting that day. Or, maybe they go get someone to start a game because they are feeling insecure about their SP stats without thinking of how a bad stream starter can murder them. Streaming is a good strategy, but if you over-depend on it, you’ll invariably fuck your season up because you’ll bank on a spot starter like Brian Tallet a few too many times in bad matchups.

Then again, if you never, ever stream (i.e. if you’re a pussy) someone else will get this year’s version of Joe Saunders or, well, Cliff Lee.

6. You don’t take risks: You read above of my lumber-toting outfield. Well, today, I sat Lee and played Fred Lewis. Lewis is never going to hit like Lee, but he’s swinging the bat well, and I need steals, and I trusted my gut. It could backfire, but if you’re a pussy, you always play the guys who are the “right” play. The guy who most people (based on Y! percentages) play.

Well, if everyone were jumping off a bridge, would you?

Also, “most people” don’t win their league(s).

7. You give up on guys way too early: I picked up Mike Aviles (dumped Orlando Cabrera) because someone didn’t like his slow start. Uh, it’s April. It’s cold, the ball doesn’t travel as well, and people are still adjusting to being physical every day.

(Insert every other cliche about slow starts.)

Baseball’s season is long. As such, April means fuck all. Are you giving up on players simply because they didn’t roar out of the gate? Well, Josh Hamilton currently has more SB (2) than HR (1). Curtis Granderson is barely hitting .200. Dan Haren, despite three outstanding starts, is 0-3. CC Sabathia’s been knocked around like [insert your own tasteless, thoughtless joke here] and li’l Timmy Lincecum’s been lit up like the Christmas tree at 30 Rock. Are people dropping every one of them? Does someone have to have 5-10 years of consistency for you to stand by them for a bit? Because if so, keep dropping great (and/or great upside) players, and I’ll find a way to capitalize on your mistake(s) and bury you.

 

Just saying

This post was written on April 16.

This was written by Y! expert Scott Pianowski on April 17.

Check the last item in Pianowski’s piece.

Just saying…we know what we’re talking about here.

Kinda.

(Also: Don’t trust Cliff Lee’s one good start or keep jerking off to his 2008 stats. This guy’s a world of average waiting to crush your fantasy team.)

 

Mike Aviles, dropped

Yesterday in one of my leagues, I submitted a waiver claim on Mike Aviles, and if it comes through, I’ll have to dump Orlando Cabrera. This, to me, is a no-brainer: Aviles has more upside, is eligibile at 2B and SS, and is (in theory) a better hitter. Cabrera is on the downside of his career and, though serviceable, plays for an Oakland team that’s going to have trouble scoring runs this year.

So I felt amazing all day, knowing full well that I have a good chance of getting Aviles because, well, I’m not 100% sure that people in this league know a lot about who to keep and who to toss over the side.

But I woke up feeling weird, like maybe I fucked up.

Did I?

Given Aviles’ skill-set, does it make more sense going after him or keeping Cabrera?

The rest of my lineup, C to UTIL in standard order, is: Napoli, Adrian Gonzalez, Cano, Michael Young, Chris Davis, Hamilton, Braun, Carlos Lee, Quentin, Burrell, Fred Lewis, and Cabrera.

Categories are standard 5×5 hitting categories plus hits, errors, and OPS.

Also: It’s a H2H league, not a Roto league.

So who thinks I fucked up and who thinks my initial idea was sound? Sound off?

 

Nyjer Morgan

My previous post, about seven guys you might want to think about picking up for your fantasy team, is far from the only such piece on this topic. It’s April 17. The season (both fantasy and real-life) is just underway, and people are still trying to figure out who’s going to do what this season.

Thing is, in fantasy baseball, not being able to realize some no-namer can, essentially, fuck your entire year, or, rather, let someone else gain a leg up on you (from which you may not recover). That’s why we’re seeing a glut of pieces like the following regarding Nyjer Morgan; one of which (the Rotoworld one) says basically what I said, the other of which suggests that Morgan is going to be a 4th OF in Pittsburgh.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_previousnews.aspx?sport=MLB&leaguenum=&id=4659

http://www.keeperleaguegm.com/fantasy-baseball-stock-watch-is-nyjer-morgan-for-real/1858/

I’m inclined to think that Nyjer is a keeper. I’m very impressed by what I’ve seen so far, and, being a hockey-0bsessed Canadian, I can’t help but like him more for certain other reasons.

Recommendation (again): Buy.

 

Top 7 pick up-able players

I don’t know how many leagues you play in, or the competition in those leagues, or whether guys like Mike Aviles (!) get dropped because of early season slumps (I had a waiver claim on him inside of about four seconds), but regardless, there’s always quality available early in the year. With a nod to Paul Bourdett’s Pick-up artist, here are seven players that may be available in your leagues that you might want to take a look at.

Aaron Hill: Currently boasting a pretty excellent .356/.362/.622, this guy may be the key to a reborn offense in Toronto. The illusion around draft time this year was that there were only a few good 2B (Ian Kinsler, Chase Utley, Brandon Phillips, etc) to be had. That isn’t exactly true. In my three leagues, I have Kinsler, Cano, and Pedroia, with backups like Aviles (and his two-position eligibility), Felipe Lopez (and his four position eligibility) and I’m still looking for a way to get Hill, who had concussion problems last year, on my team. Let’s not forget that this guy is two years removed from hitting .291 with 47 doubles, 17 HR, and 78 RBI. If he had that season in 2008 instead of 2007, he would have gone in the first 140 picks, right?

Nyjer Morgan: No, he won’t bat .371 all year, but in Morgan, you may have this year’s Nate McLouth albeit with less power and (probably) more steals. A highly-touted prospect, he didn’t hit too badly (.291) in sporadic duty late last year, and has, in 8 games, already matched the 7 RBI he slammed last year in 58 games. This is because he’s hitting higher in the lineup (leading off, actually) and that lineup is actually producing. Pittsburgh may be a last place team, but Morgan is not a loser.

Brandon Inge: The facts on Inge are that he hits for a consistently low average, but that he’s got some pop. Also, he hits in a lineup that Miguel Cabrera seems determined to make the best in the majors all by himself. But the most important thing is his multi-position eligibility (C, 3B, OF). If you’re starting junk at C because you (smartly) didn’t waste an early pick on one of the three Ms (McCann, Martin, Mauer), you might want to take Inge for a stroll and see if you get lucky.

Jordan Schafer: He’s the real deal, and maybe the third-best hitter in an Atlanta lineup that’s a lot better than people think. Better still, as opposed to, say, Brett Gardner, his on-the-job learning isn’t being covered by 11 daily newspapers and 638 updated-daily blogs. Maybe I’m naive (read: I’m not) but I think he flirts with .300 all year, and clears 20 HR and 75 RBI. More if he gets to bat fifth or sixth instead of his current seventh.

John Smoltz: Yeah, yeah, he’s 42 and is coming off of shoulder surgery and won’t even be playing until June. H2H leagues don’t really mean anything until late in the season, and before his injury-plagued 2008, Smoltz’s previous seasons yielded 30 wins and nice peripherals. He was, in theory, on pace for a great year last year before he got old hurt, and he’s going to be pitching for a Red Sox  team that’s got enough power to win ugly. I mean, I know guys who have guys like David Purcey on their rosters, and, more to the point, will have David Purcey on their roster when Smoltz is striking out Blue Jays by the batch. Take a flyer on him, stash him on on the DL, and see what happens? The guy’s a friggin’ Hall of Famer.

Marco Scutaro: Like his infield partner Aaron Hill, Scutaro has been an integral part of the Blue Jays’ early season hit parade. Will it continue? Who knows. But so far, Scutaro has been dependable, and a dynamite leadoff man. Better still, the guy’s got multi-position eligibility and a line that goes, at present, .297/.426/.541. I’m not pretending that I think that he’s going to stay about .300 above his career OPS all year, but if he stays, say, .150 above it, that’s still gonna shake out to some nice numbers.

Dexter Fowler: Yeah, he’s 23, and in his rookie season. When he’s got fat numbers and plays in Colorado, does it really matter? Okay, sure, Coors isn’t the launching pad it used to be, but I know a lot of people whose opinions I trust that are high as hell on this kid. If I had room, I’d stash him on my bench and see what happens.

 

A bad joke? Bad writing? Bad advice?

I’ve read this about four times, now, and I still don’t know whether it’s a bad joke, bad writing, or just bad advice.

Whatever the case, if you are drafting a league soon (and if you missed pre-season drafting you damn well better be!), this is the kind of stuff not to read. It’ll rot your effing brain. It is adviceFAIL. It leads to you drafting Mark DeRosa inside of the top 100 with the justification:

“His versatility is worth it if he puts up similar numbers to a year ago.”

Uh, no it’s not. Also, Cleveland is not Chicago.

 

Does anyone read the Pick-up Artist?

Okay, so, there’s a new addition to the ever-growing family of Y! FB (that’s “fantasy baseball” to you, bub) columns. It’s called “The Pick-up artist” and it’s written by a guy named Paul Bourdett. Here’s a link to the most recent bit of Bourdett.

Anyway, outside of his kind of lame (but still, kind of funny) premise, wherein he writes about players to pick up off the waiver wire, and appends to them some kind of cheesy pick-up line (a la “Do you believe in love at first sight or should I walk by again?”) that is meant to signify something about the player being talked about, I actually quite like the things that he’s writing. Thing is, and I’m not sure why, but I think I may be the only one.

Why do I think this?

Well, let’s just assume that I’m right when I say that the Y! game is the most-played FB game in the universe. (It is.) And let’s assume that people who play the Y! game do, occasionally, visit the Y! Fantasy mainpage, where there are full-colour photos and links to articles and Big Boards, etc. (They have to.)

That’s where The Pick-up artist is. And, if Y! players were reading him, they’d be picking up guys like Aaron Hill, Mike Cameron, and Wandy Rodriguez, who are pretty much readily available in a lot of leagues, including ones that I’m playing in.

But they’re not, which suggests one of two things: a) the Y! “expert” is giving shitty advice or b) people aren’t heeding because they’re not reading.

An open note to bad fantasy baseball managers: This is why you lose. Because you think you know everything.

Either that, or you’re lazy.

 

Hiatus? No.

Okay, so, admittedly this blog almost went the way of so many blogs. A lot of blogs peter out really quickly because, well, the people who are in charge of filling up space with words (known, in some cultures, as “writing”) do not fill up space with words. This is often because of things that aren’t really issues but which become issues.

Apologies, because this almost happened here.

Anyway. While the mandate of this blog is still kind of being developed, I can assure you that I’m going to (and, hopefully, by extension, Miller and Jared and, hopefully, other friends/writers) devote more energy to this blog.

 

Fantasy baseball + girls?

Normally, for me, putting the words “women” and “fantasy”  together results in some Marisa Miller images.

However, this year I finally had a female friend join our fantasy baseball ranks. It hadn’t really occurred to me that we had never had a female in our league before, but there it was. We hadn’t.

[Ed's note: Uh, is she in one of the leagues you and I play in?]

Thus far, the most significant female involvement in my fantasy world was a draft day fight with the girlfriend, which resulted in auto-picks for my first seven rounds. [Ed's note: I think I remember this.] Similarly, my friend’s draft day fight with his girlfriend cost him a week-long trip to Florida as his penance for continuing to draft.

But I digress.

This year there will be a competitive female member of our league who I shall refer to as P. Although I have my doubts that P will compete as far as naming her team after someone’s attractive sister, I do have faith in her knowledge of baseball and her desire to win. On the other hand, games of bravado usually end up being the most satisfying part of fantasy baseball. But these old-boy club games could use some female insight. For example, certain names and insults that are generally regarded as no-nos in the all-male world become fair game for coed leagues.

But the most important factor of the coed league is how it affects the male psyche.

No guy I  know wants to have his knowledge of sport emasculated by a crushing fantasy defeat at the hands of lady P. I know it is childish but there are many things the male mind just never grows out of. Honestly, I am not going to be able to compete with her in her knowledge of fashion, makeup, America’s Next Top Model or 90210 but I will be damned if she is going to beat me in baseball.

Think differently? Sound off.